Health, History, Demography and Development (H2D2)

Abstract:
The role of resource accumulation in African development depends on whether it provokes conflict between neighboring societies. Our novel model of strategic interaction gives rise to a non-monotonic relationship between resources, conflict and development. Own and others’ resource endowments fuel conflict by raising the gains from appropriation and increasing fighting strength. We use within-country spatial data on rainfall, conflict, and nighttime lights to identify discontinuities in the relationships between own resources and conflict. Alternative measures of resource accumulation, including land productivity, oil fields, and minerals give similar results. Our results are not driven by local differences in geography, agriculture, or climate, and are robust to spatial fixed effects and alternative data sources. We differ from the existing literature in highlighting the importance of strategic interaction between neighbors and the availability of resources in determining spatial patterns of conflict and long-run development in Africa.