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The University of Michigan’s 70th Annual

Economic Outlook Conference

November 17–18, 2022

Daniil Manaenkov

Dr. Daniil Manaenkov has been engaged in tracking and forecasting the U.S. economy for almost 20 years. He has been leading RSQE’s national forecasting team since 2013. Prior to joining RSQE, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where he managed the bank's macroeconomic forecasting model. Daniil testifies regularly in front of the Michigan Legislature and briefs the Governor of Michigan annually on RSQE's national economic outlook. Governor Rick Snyder sent Daniil a personal thank-you letter for his contributions to the state budget process. Daniil frequently shares his views on national economic conditions with various media outlets, with the list of recent interviews featuring CNBC, CGTN America, WXYZ-TV Detroit, NPR's Marketplace, and the Wall Street Journal. Daniil also leads RSQE’s development and adoption of cutting-edge time series and machine learning forecasting methods and contributes to RSQE's forecasting project with the City of Detroit. Daniil’s main areas of expertise are macroeconomics, monetary economics, and applied econometrics. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota, and holds a Master of Science degree in applied mathematics and physics from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. Daniil recently coauthored The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2022–2024, and The Detroit Economic Outlook for 2022–2027.

Joanne Hsu

Joanne W. Hsu (pronounced “shoo”) is the Director of the Surveys of Consumers and a Research Associate Professor at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. She earned her PhD in economics at the University of Michigan and her AB in economics and international relations at Brown University. Her research is primarily in the fields of household finance, labor economics, and survey methods, with a current focus on financial sophistication and cognition, and consumer experiences with debt. She previously served as a principal economist in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, where her work included the Survey of Consumer of Finances and the consumption forecast, as well as a visiting professor at the Department of Economics, Howard University.

Julia Pollak

Julia Pollak is Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter, a leading online employment marketplace that uses AI-driven smart matching technology to connect millions of businesses and job seekers. She uses data from the ZipRecruiter marketplace to measure the health of the labor market, identify hiring trends, and help employers and job seekers prepare for the future of work. Her research is frequently cited in leading national outlets, like the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and NPR. Prior to working at ZipRecruiter, Julia was an Assistant Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation and an adjunct economics instructor at Pepperdine University. Julia holds a B.A. in economics from Harvard and an M.Phil. in policy analysis from Pardee RAND Graduate School. She was a drilling reservist in the U.S. Navy from 2011 to 2022.

Emily Kolinski Morris

Emily Kolinski Morris joined Ford Motor Company in 1997 and during that time has conducted economic analysis in varying roles for all of Ford’s major global markets, before becoming its chief economist in 2014. In this capacity, Emily manages the corporate economics group with major responsibility for the Company's global economic and automotive industry forecasts supporting business strategy, finance, and planning. In 2021, Emily assumed additional responsibilities as director of Ford’s Enterprise Risk Management group, providing strategic direction across functions to help leaders identify, assess and mitigate key risks to the company’s performance. Prior to joining Ford, Emily spent four years as a fiscal analyst with the Michigan House ofRepresentatives. In that non-partisan position, she provided counsel to House members on program funding and performance, testified regularly before the House Appropriations committee, and interacted with stakeholders at all levels of state government. Emily holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. She is active in various professional organizations, currently serving on the board of the Council for EconomicEducation and as a member of the University of Michigan-Dearborn Citizen’s advisory committee and the Conference of Business Economists. She previously served a three-year term as an elected board member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), and is also a past president of the Detroit chapter of that organization.

Michael Horrigan

Michael Horrigan took over as president of the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in March 2019. He served previously as associate commissioner with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dr. Horrigan came to the BLS as a labor economist in 1986, after six years as an economics professor at Williams College in his native Massachusetts. He rose through the ranks as a division chief, the director of the National Longitudinal Surveys Program and assistant commissioner in two offices. He served as associate commissioner for the Offices of Prices and Living Conditions before taking his role of associate commissioner in the Office of Unemployment and Unemployment Statistics in 2014.

Robin Brooks

As Managing Director and Chief Economist, Mr. Brooks oversees the IIF’s macroeconomic analysis and serves as part of the IIF’s senior management team. Previously, Mr. Brooks was the Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs based in NY, where he was responsible for the firm’s foreign exchange forecasts and publishing international macro research. Prior to joining Goldman, Mr. Brooks was the FX strategist at Brevan Howard. Before joining the private sector, Mr. Brooks spent eight years as an economist at the International Monetary Fund, where he worked on the IMF’s fair value models for FX, published academic research and participated in missions to IMF program countries. Mr. Brooks earned his PhD in Economics from Yale University in 1998. He earned a BSc in Monetary Economics from the London School of Economics in 1993.

Gabriel Ehrlich

Gabriel Ehrlich is an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan, where he is the Director of the University’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE). Gabe oversees RSQE’s forecasts of the U.S. and Michigan economies, and he presents regularly to the Michigan Legislature and Governor on Michigan’s economic and fiscal prospects. Prior to joining RSQE, Gabe worked as an economic forecaster and analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.

David Berson

David W. Berson retired from the role of Vice President & Chief Economist at Nationwide Insurance, in August 2022. He managed a team of economists and was in charge of providing forecasts and analyses of the economy as well as financial and insurance markets that were used by Nationwide's senior leadership team and business units for strategic and corporate planning purposes. He also acted as Nationwide's primary spokesperson on economic and financial market conditions, prospects, and policy. Berson was previously SVP & Chief Economist and Head of Risk Analytics at the PMI Group, where he headed modeling and forecasting for the company. Prior to that, he was VP & Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, where he advised the company on national and regional economic, housing, and mortgage market policy and conditions. He has also been Chief Financial Economist and Head of Regional Economic Analysis at Wharton Econometrics, Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of  Kansas City, and Assistant Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College and Claremont Graduate School. His government experiences have included Staff Economist on the Council of Economic Advisers and Economic Analyst at the Treasury Department and the Office of the Special Trade Representative. Berson is a former President of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and is a frequent speaker to media and industry groups on the economy, housing, and financial markets. He has a BA in History and Economics from Williams College, a Master of Public Policy and a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan,  and, has a Certified Business Economist (CBE) designation from NABE

Lutz Kilian

Dr. Lutz Kilian has been a Senior Economic Policy Adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas since the summer of 2019. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1996 and his M.A. in Development Banking from The American University in 1988. He joined the faculty at the University of Michigan in 1996, where he was tenured in 2002 and promoted to Professor of Economics in 2008.  Prior to his Ph.D., he worked for the research department of the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, DC. During 2001-03 he served as the research adviser to the European Central Bank. Dr. Kilian has published over 100 articles. His work has appeared in leading general interest and field journals in economics and statistics. His research interests include time series econometrics, empirical macroeconomics, and energy economics. Together with Helmut Lütkepohl he is the author of the Cambridge University Press textbook Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis. Dr. Kilian is one the leading experts on global oil markets. According to REPEC, he is the most cited energy economist worldwide.