The University of Michigan’s 70th Annual
Economic Outlook Conference
November 17–18, 2022
Dr. Daniil Manaenkov has been engaged in tracking and forecasting the U.S. economy for almost 20 years. He has been leading RSQE’s national forecasting team since 2013. Prior to joining RSQE, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where he managed the bank's macroeconomic forecasting model. Daniil testifies regularly in front of the Michigan Legislature and briefs the Governor of Michigan annually on RSQE's national economic outlook. Governor Rick Snyder sent Daniil a personal thank-you letter for his contributions to the state budget process. Daniil frequently shares his views on national economic conditions with various media outlets, with the list of recent interviews featuring CNBC, CGTN America, WXYZ-TV Detroit, NPR's Marketplace, and the Wall Street Journal. Daniil also leads RSQE’s development and adoption of cutting-edge time series and machine learning forecasting methods and contributes to RSQE's forecasting project with the City of Detroit. Daniil’s main areas of expertise are macroeconomics, monetary economics, and applied econometrics. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota, and holds a Master of Science degree in applied mathematics and physics from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. Daniil recently coauthored The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2022–2024, and The Detroit Economic Outlook for 2022–2027.
Joanne W. Hsu (pronounced “shoo”) is the Director of the Surveys of Consumers and a Research Associate Professor at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. She earned her PhD in economics at the University of Michigan and her AB in economics and international relations at Brown University. Her research is primarily in the fields of household finance, labor economics, and survey methods, with a current focus on financial sophistication and cognition, and consumer experiences with debt. She previously served as a principal economist in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, where her work included the Survey of Consumer of Finances and the consumption forecast, as well as a visiting professor at the Department of Economics, Howard University.
Julia Pollak is Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter, a leading online employment marketplace that uses AI-driven smart matching technology to connect millions of businesses and job seekers. She uses data from the ZipRecruiter marketplace to measure the health of the labor market, identify hiring trends, and help employers and job seekers prepare for the future of work. Her research is frequently cited in leading national outlets, like the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and NPR. Prior to working at ZipRecruiter, Julia was an Assistant Policy Analyst at the RAND Corporation and an adjunct economics instructor at Pepperdine University. Julia holds a B.A. in economics from Harvard and an M.Phil. in policy analysis from Pardee RAND Graduate School. She was a drilling reservist in the U.S. Navy from 2011 to 2022.
Emily Kolinski Morris
Emily Kolinski Morris joined Ford Motor Company in 1997 and during that time has conducted economic analysis in varying roles for all of Ford’s major global markets, before becoming its chief economist in 2014. In this capacity, Emily manages the corporate economics group with major responsibility for the Company's global economic and automotive industry forecasts supporting business strategy, finance, and planning. In 2021, Emily assumed additional responsibilities as director of Ford’s Enterprise Risk Management group, providing strategic direction across functions to help leaders identify, assess and mitigate key risks to the company’s performance. Prior to joining Ford, Emily spent four years as a fiscal analyst with the Michigan House ofRepresentatives. In that non-partisan position, she provided counsel to House members on program funding and performance, testified regularly before the House Appropriations committee, and interacted with stakeholders at all levels of state government. Emily holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. She is active in various professional organizations, currently serving on the board of the Council for EconomicEducation and as a member of the University of Michigan-Dearborn Citizen’s advisory committee and the Conference of Business Economists. She previously served a three-year term as an elected board member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), and is also a past president of the Detroit chapter of that organization.
Michael Horrigan took over as Upjohn Institute’s president in March 2019. In the last three years, he has overseen the development of a strategic plan for the Institute, introduced numerous new and innovative workplace practices, and created several new management structures to help guide the work of the Institute. An expert in education, workforce development, and labor market issues, he recently oversaw a major study developing an index of demand for Career and Technical Education courses related to in-demand occupations. Mike worked for over 32 years at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). He rose through the ranks as a division chief, the director of the National Longitudinal Surveys Program, and assistant commissioner in two offices. He served as associate commissioner for the Offices of Prices and Living Conditions for ten years before taking the role of associate commissioner in the Office of Unemployment and Unemployment Statistics in 2014. Mike serves the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe as a member of the Measuring the Quality of Employment group.
As Managing Director and Chief Economist, Mr. Brooks oversees the IIF’s macroeconomic analysis and serves as part of the IIF’s senior management team. Previously, Mr. Brooks was the Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs based in NY, where he was responsible for the firm’s foreign exchange forecasts and publishing international macro research. Prior to joining Goldman, Mr. Brooks was the FX strategist at Brevan Howard. Before joining the private sector, Mr. Brooks spent eight years as an economist at the International Monetary Fund, where he worked on the IMF’s fair value models for FX, published academic research and participated in missions to IMF program countries. Mr. Brooks earned his PhD in Economics from Yale University in 1998. He earned a BSc in Monetary Economics from the London School of Economics in 1993.
Rick Pluta is Senior Capitol Correspondent for the Michigan Public Radio Network. He has been covering Michigan’s Capitol, government, and politics since 1987. His journalism background includes stints with UPI, The Elizabeth (NJ) Daily Journal, The (Pontiac, MI) Oakland Press, and WJR. He is also a lifelong public radio listener.Rick's work includes writing about the state's economy and employment trends. He was also of the first Michigan political reporters to write about “pay-to-play” fundraising, and the controversies surrounding recognition of same-sex relationships. He broke the news that Gov. John Engler was planning a huge juvenile justice overhaul that included adult-time-for-adult-crime sentencing, and has continued to report since then on the effects of that policy decision. He co-hosted the weekly segment “It’s Just Politics” on Michigan Radio with Zoe Clark. You will never find him ice-fishing.
Gabriel Ehrlich is an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan, where he is the Director of the University’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE). Gabe oversees RSQE’s forecasts of the U.S. and Michigan economies, and he presents regularly to the Michigan Legislature and Governor on Michigan’s economic and fiscal prospects. Prior to joining RSQE, Gabe worked as an economic forecaster and analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.
Eric W. Lupher
Eric has been President of the Citizens Research Council since September of 2014. He has been with the Citizens Research Council since 1987, the first two years as a Lent Upson-Loren Miller Fellow, and since then as a Research Associate and, later, as Director of Local Affairs. Eric has researched such issues as state taxes, state revenue sharing, highway funding, unemployment insurance, economic development incentives, and stadium funding. His recent work focused on local government matters, including intergovernmental cooperation, governance issues, and municipal finance. Eric is a past president of the Governmental Research Association and also served as vice-chairman of the Governmental Accounting Standards Advisory Council (GASAC), an advisory body for the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB), representing the user community on behalf of the Governmental Research Association.Eric holds a B.A. in International Relations from James Madison College at Michigan State University and a Masters in Public Administration from Wayne State University.
David W. Berson retired from the role of Vice President & Chief Economist at Nationwide Insurance, in August 2022. He managed a team of economists and was in charge of providing forecasts and analyses of the economy as well as financial and insurance markets that were used by Nationwide's senior leadership team and business units for strategic and corporate planning purposes. He also acted as Nationwide's primary spokesperson on economic and financial market conditions, prospects, and policy. Berson was previously SVP & Chief Economist and Head of Risk Analytics at the PMI Group, where he headed modeling and forecasting for the company. Prior to that, he was VP & Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, where he advised the company on national and regional economic, housing, and mortgage market policy and conditions. He has also been Chief Financial Economist and Head of Regional Economic Analysis at Wharton Econometrics, Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and Assistant Professor of Economics at Claremont McKenna College and Claremont Graduate School. His government experiences have included Staff Economist on the Council of Economic Advisers and Economic Analyst at the Treasury Department and the Office of the Special Trade Representative. Berson is a former President of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and is a frequent speaker to media and industry groups on the economy, housing, and financial markets. He has a BA in History and Economics from Williams College, a Master of Public Policy and a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan, and, has a Certified Business Economist (CBE) designation from NABE
Dr. Lutz Kilian has been a Senior Economic Policy Adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas since the summer of 2019. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1996 and his M.A. in Development Banking from The American University in 1988. He joined the faculty at the University of Michigan in 1996, where he was tenured in 2002 and promoted to Professor of Economics in 2008. Prior to his Ph.D., he worked for the research department of the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, DC. During 2001-03 he served as the research adviser to the European Central Bank. Dr. Kilian has published over 100 articles. His work has appeared in leading general interest and field journals in economics and statistics. His research interests include time series econometrics, empirical macroeconomics, and energy economics. Together with Helmut Lütkepohl he is the author of the Cambridge University Press textbook Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis. Dr. Kilian is one the leading experts on global oil markets. According to REPEC, he is the most cited energy economist worldwide.
Welcome - John Leahy
John Leahy is Chair of Economics, and Allen Sinai Professor of Macroeconomics and Public Policy. John is a macroeconomist with interests in monetary economics and economic theory. He received his Ph.D. from Princeton, and has held positions at Harvard, Boston University and New York University before joining the faculty at Michigan. He has consulted at the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia and Kansas City, and has served as Editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. He also served as Coeditor of the American Economic Review.
Presiding - Saul Hymans
Saul Hymans is Emeritus Professor of Economics and Statistics and held the position of Director of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan during 1981-2008. He has been at the University of Michigan since 1964, and served as chair of the Department of Economics during 1977-80.Saul received the national Blue Chip Annual Economic Forecasting Award (AEFA, formerly the Silbert Award) in 1984 and 1987, and is the first person to have received the AEFA twice.
Hymans graduated from Harvard College and holds a Ph.D. in economics and an M.A. in statistics from the University of California, Berkeley. He served as senior staff economist on the President's Council of Economic Advisers in 1967-68, as a member of the Board of Directors of the National Bureau of Economic Research during 1989-2010, and as the U.S. forecaster for the Pacific Economic Outlook Project of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council during 1988-2008.
The author of numerous journal articles, chapters, and research papers, Hymans has also traveled to the Soviet Union on a U.S. scientific exchange delegation and has been a visiting scholar in Israel, Stockholm, and Hong Kong.
Presiding - George Fulton
George A. Fulton received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan. He is currently the Director at RSQE and Research Professor at the University’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy, where he is director of the Center for Labor Market Research.
He has been forecasting economic and fiscal activity in the state of Michigan annually for over three decades. In addition, he is co-director of a project to generate long-term economic and demographic projections for all the counties of Michigan. He is also a principal advisor to the University administration and to the state government on the economic situation in Michigan.
He has written a book on the Michigan regional economies, co-authored with former University of Michigan President Harold Shapiro. His research crosses disciplines, having been published in diverse professional journals and sponsored research reports.
Presiding - Michael McWilliams
Michael McWilliams is the Michigan Forecasting Specialist at RSQE. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan, and he has also received an M.Sc. in economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science. At RSQE, Michael assists with forecasts of the Michigan economy and leads the development of state tax revenue projections. He also participates in RSQE's local economic forecasts for the City of Detroit, Oakland County, MI, and Washtenaw County, MI. In 2018, Michael coauthored an RSQE report on the economic impacts of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). He also contributes to RSQE's ongoing partnership with the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC) to provide economic impact assessments for the state's Transformational Brownfield Plan program.
Michael’s personal research focuses on a range of topics in environmental and natural resource economics, including land use change, regulation of light-duty vehicles, and the impact of the ethanol mandates. His work has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and Energy Policy. During his graduate study, Michael interned at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality.