Assistant Professor Pablo Ottonello, Rafael Guntin and Diego Perez recently released NBER working paper, "The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments".


We study crises characterized by large adjustments of aggregate consumption through their microlevel patterns. We show that leading theories designed to explain aggregate consumption dynamics differ markedly in their cross-sectional predictions. While theories based on financial frictions predict that rich households with liquid assets should be able to smooth consumption during bad times, neoclassical theories predict that these agents would optimally adjust their consumption if crises severely affect their permanent income. Using microlevel data on several episodes of large aggregate-consumption adjustment, we document that rich households significantly adjust consumption relative to their income, consistent with the permanent-income hypothesis of consumption during crises. We discuss our findings' implications for the effectiveness of stabilization policies that target consumption during crises.