AB '61 Econ
Chief Global Economist and President
Decision Economics, Inc.
Dr. Allen Sinai is Chief Global Economist and President of Decision Economics, Inc. (DE), cofounded by him and established in 1996. DE is an economic forecasting, advisory and money management firm located in Boston and New York. Dr. Sinai is a world-renowned economist and forecaster with a documented record of arguably unparalleled forecasting accuracy spanning over four decades. Allen has worked with and for a number of financial institutions and businesses, has advised policymakers in governments-and-out, and has been a university professor.
From 1983-1996, he was at Lehman Brothers, Inc. a Managing Director and its Chief Global Economist, also serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist (1997-2003) at The Boston Company, a private bank and investment management subsidiary of Shearson Lehman Brothers. Prior to Lehman, from 1971 to 1983 Dr. Sinai was Chief Financial Economist, Co-Director of the Financial Institutions Group (FIG) and a Senior Vice President at the Lexington, MA-based pioneer forecasting firm, Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), headed by Harvard Professor, Otto Eckstein. He served on the Board of Boston Private Financial Holdings, a wealth management and private banking firm for 22 years, from 1992 to 2014.
In an academic career spanning over nearly five decades, Dr. Sinai has held a number of university positions—Assistant to Full Professor, University of Illinois-Chicago (1967-72); Adjunct Professor of Economics and Finance in the Lemberg School at Brandeis University (1988-96); and as a Professor at New York University (1984-88) and at Boston University (1981-83). He was a Visiting Faculty Member at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (1975-77) and the MIT Sloan School of Management (1989-91).
Allen Sinai is known for his forecast accuracy and pioneering use of a National Economic and Financial Information Systems (NEIFA) approach to forecasting “Big Wave” trends in the U.S. and world economies and financial markets. He brings to his work a unique blend of scientific macroeconometric model-based academic research, an understanding of the structure and workings of the U.S. and Global economies and financial markets, extensive hands on experience working for financial institutions and in financial markets, involvement in Washington and other centers of policymaking, and a long time career in business and investments. Over many years, independent and nonpartisan, he has advised policymakers in Washington, Japan and globally, the U.S. Congress, and both Republican and Democratic Administrations on the economy, policy, the financial markets, and bottom-line strategy.
Among his forecasts was advance warning and forecasting of “The Great Recession” and “Financial Crises of 2006-09” and the subsequent “L”-like anemic and unprecedented lackluster expansion against a widely expected “V” rebound. The collapse of the U.S. economy and financial markets in 2007-08 was forecast well in-advance by Dr. Sinai, documented by third party records. The subsequent Equity Bull Market that began in March 2009, still ongoing as forecasted to be the longest on record, was seen in late 2008 and early 2009, and called the day of its start by him on March 10, 2009. In the early 1980s, Allen correctly forecasted the coming Reagan economic boom and later the Stock Market Crash of October 1987, where on the Friday before the Monday Crash, appearing on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week, Allen indicated an incipient collapse. In early 1992, he forecasted the coming 1990s economic boom and Great Equity Bull Market of that decade. He correctly forecasted the recessions of 1990-91 and 2000-01, the former even though the original published data did not so indicate. Dr. Sinai has correctly called all Equity Bull and Bear Markets since the 1970s. He very quickly recognized a new business cycle upturn in the U.S. and elsewhere in early Spring 2020 after the Pandemic-caused collapse of the economy and in early April 2020 forecasted a New Equity Bull Market. He appears to be the most accurate forecaster in the history of economics.
Over the years, Dr. Sinai has contributed over 100 articles to academic/professional journals and has given, organized, and participated in hundreds of Lectures, Conferences and Speeches. He has frequently been cited and appeared in the written and TV media, provided scores of Testimonies before the Congress, and informed and advised policymakers in Washington and globally, the U.S. Congress and various Administrations, both Republican and Democratic, on the economy, policies, strategy, and financial markets.
Awards include Top Forecaster by Market Watch in 2004, by the Wall Street Journal in 2006, by USA Today in 2003 and 2005, and by Business Week in 1997, Dr. Sinai’s forecasting record is arguably and documented the best ever in his profession. He was named One of the 10 Smartest People in Boston by Boston Magazine in 1992. Other awards include a 2016 John Sweetland Award from the University of Michigan, the 1988 Otto Eckstein Prize, a 1985 Alumnus Merit Award from Northwestern University, and an Alfred Nelson Marquis Lifetime Achievement Award in 2019.
As a Member of the Time Magazine Board of Economists from 1991 to 2002, Time Magazine said of him, “Anyone who thinks economics is a dismal science has never been treated to the vivid commentaries of Allen Sinai.”
Allen Sinai has a B.A. Degree in Economics from the University of Michigan, with Honors, and holds a Ph. D. in Economics from Northwestern University. He has been married to Lee Etsten Sinai for 56 years. The Sinai’s have two children and five grandchildren and reside in Lexington, MA and Edgartown, MA..