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No Test Exists!   Why Tests Applied to Individuals Cannot Determine Optimal Cognitive Teams (A Many Model Approach)

A Talk in Honor of Rick Riolo by Scott E Page - Leonid Hurwicz Collegiate Professor of Complex Systems; Professor of Political Science, Complex Systems and Economics
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
11:30 AM-1:00 PM
411 West Hall Map

Most cognitive work is now done in teams.  That is true in the academy, the private sector, and the public sector.  Yet, with few exceptions, most hiring is done at the individual level.   Fairness combined with concerns about hiring the "best", lead many organizations to adopt scoring rules for hiring and admissions.  As seen in the recent lawsuit involving Harvard admissions,  Harvard combines test scores, GPA, personality factors, and legacy status in coming up with a score for each applicant. Those applicants with the highest scores gain acceptance.

Over the past decade and a half, a series of theoretical papers by Hong and Page; Marcolino, Jiang and Tambe; Kleinberg and Raghu; and Bendor and Page have shown either directly or implicitly that on complex tasks, no such test can exist. That is, no test applied to individuals, will identify the best team.   

The talk will discuss these models plus several more and then place them on axiomatic foundations, showing that, in fact, for a test to exist, the problem must be relatively simple.

This is a special talk to help kick off the newly established Rick Riolo Memorial Fund. Giving Blueday and the day of the release of Scott Page's new book The Model Thinker happen to fall on the same day.

Donors to the RRMF may also receive a Free Copy of this new book. If you donate $100 or more between the hours of 11:30am and 2:00pm tomorrow, you will receive a free signed copy of book. Dr. Page has generously purchased advanced copies of the book to help raise support for the new fund. Thank you to Basic Books for allowing the advanced purchase.

The Model Thinker: What You Need To Know To Make Data Work For You (2018 Basic Books) is available to purchase on November 27.

The Model Thinker explains why we model, advocates an interdisciplinary approach to modeling and contains accessible descriptions of more than two dozen models.   Prior to its release, The Model Thinker has been an Amazon top 10 new release in data science, stochastic modeling, engineering transportation, financial engineering, game theory and both areas of statistics: baseball statistics and biostatistics. It is currently the #1 new release in Business Planning and Forecasting.  The book officially goes on sale on Amazon on Nov. 27th.
Building: West Hall
Event Type: Workshop / Seminar
Tags: seminar
Source: Happening @ Michigan from The Center for the Study of Complex Systems, Department of Sociology, Department of Political Science