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The University of Michigan’s

66th Annual Economic Outlook Conference

took place in Ann Arbor on November 15–16, 2018

David Berson

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company

Dr. Berson leads a team of economic analysts delivering economic forecasts and analyses that are used to inform and strengthen the organization’s business strategies and operating plans. David is a noted economic expert, who holds a doctorate in economics and a master’s degree in public policy from the University of Michigan, and a bachelor’s degree in history and economics from Williams College. He is a frequent speaker to media and industry groups on the economic outlook, housing, and mortgage markets, as well as the author of numerous publications. Prior to joining Nationwide, David served as the Chief Economist & Strategist and Head of Risk Analytics for The PMI Group, Inc. Previous to that, David was Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae, Chief Financial Economist at Wharton Econometrics, visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and assistant professor of economics at Claremont McKenna College and Claremont Graduate School. His government experience has included staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers and economic analyst at the Treasury Department and the Office of Special Trade Representative. He is a past President of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

Gloria Chen

Principal Analyst, Congressional Budget Office

Yiqun Gloria Chen is a principal analyst in the Macroeconomic Analysis Division at the Congressional Budget Office. Her primary field of research is macroeconomics, and her recent work has focused on inflation and labor market dynamics. Since joining CBO in 2016, she has produced inflation projections for CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook and conducted economic research in related areas. Gloria receives a B.S. (summa cum laude) in mathematics and a B.A. (summa cum laude) in economics from the University of Pittsburgh in 2010. She obtained her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland in 2016. Her doctoral dissertation studied the impact of technological change on the U.S. labor market—in particular, the decline of the labor share and the emergence of jobless recoveries— over the past three decades, as well as how loss aversion in consumers and workers could lead to asymmetry in business cycles.

Alan V. Deardorff

John W. Sweetland Professor of International Economics, University of Michigan

Professor Deardorff is primarily interested in the economics of international trade, both theory and policy. He has contributed to the pure theory of international trade, adapting and extending traditional neoclassical models of international trade and specialization. On trade policy, Deardorff has written widely on the uses of trade policies and the rules restricting these uses. Also, with Professor Robert Stern of University of Michigan and Professor Drusilla Brown of Tufts University, he has contributed to the development and use of computable general equilibrium models of international trade policy. His recent and current topics of theoretical research include the role of trade costs in determining patterns of trade, the determinants of international specialization, and the mechanisms by which trade liberalization may stimulate industrialization and growth.  On trade policy, Deardorff has worked with his colleagues on the prospective effects of the current Doha Round of trade liberalization, as well as writing on the measurement of barriers to trade in goods and services.  More broadly, he and his colleagues participate in the ongoing debate on the pros and cons of globalization.

William C. Dunkelberg

Chief Economist, National Federation of Independent Business

Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Business since 1971, Dunkelberg is a nationally known authority on small business, entrepreneurship, consumer behavior and consumer credit and government policy. He is also a Professor of Economics at the School of Business and Management, Temple University, where he served as Dean from 1987 through 1994 and as Director of the Center for the Advancement and Study of Entrepreneurship. His prior appointments were at the Krannert Graduate School of Management, Purdue University, the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University and the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. He served as an adviser to the secretary of Commerce, and was appointed to the Consumer Advisory Council of the Federal Reserve System in 1989 for a two-year term. He has a B.A., M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from the University of Michigan.

Kristin Dziczek

Vice President, Industry, Labor, & Economics, Center for Automotive Research

Kristin Dziczek is Vice President of Industry, Labor & Economics at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR). Dziczek joined CAR in 2005, and has more than 25 years of experience as a researcher and policy analyst. She is globally recognized as an expert on automotive labor, employment, and talent issues, especially on the topic of labor union relations and contracts, and she regularly presents at conferences and industry events throughout North America.

Kristin leads the ILE team—a group whose expertise includes economic analysis, forecasting & modeling, policy, and economic development. The ILE team’s research portfolio is focused on developing a better understanding of the connections between the automotive industry, technology, the economy, society, and public policy, and is home to CAR’s Automotive Communities Partnership program. Kristin’s research includes analyzing the competitive cost position of the U.S. automotive industry, and evaluating how different tax, trade, or industrial policies and incentives could impact overall automotive sales, production, and employment.

Prior to joining CAR, Kristin served as the associate director of the Michigan Manufacturing Technology Center, and has worked for the U.S. Congress, International Union UAW, and General Motors Corporation. She has published articles in the Monthly Labor Review, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, the Journal of Technology Transfer, and the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, among others. She earned her B.A. in economics, M.P.P. in public policy, and M.S. in industrial and operations engineering, all from the University of Michigan.

Randall W. Eberts

President, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

Dr. Eberts’ research and expertise focus on the public workforce development system, with particular emphasis on statistical methodologies to set performance targets and to refer participants to services, determinants of student achievement, and factors related to regional economic development.

Gabriel Ehrlich

Director, University of Michigan RSQE

Gabriel Ehrlich is Director of the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. His research focuses on macroeconomics and regional economics. Prior to joining RSQE, Gabe worked in the Financial Analysis Division at the Congressional Budget Office. He testifies twice per year to the Michigan Legislature on the state’s fiscal and economic prospects. His work has been discussed in The Economist magazine and The Washington Post, and his article Economic Effects of Medicaid Expansion in Michigan was recently published in The New England Journal of Medicine. Gabe received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. He is the coauthor of The Michigan Economic Outlook for 2018–2019.

Lester Graham

Reporter / Host, Stateside, Michigan Radio

Lester Graham reports for The Environment Report and also hosts Stateside (Fridays). He has reported on public policy, politics, and issues regarding race and gender inequity. He was previously with The Environment Report at Michigan Radio from 1998-2010.

He has been a journalist since 1985. Graham has served as a board member of the Public Radio News Directors Inc., and also served as President of the Illinois News Broadcasters Association. He is a member of the Radio-Television Digital News Association (RTDNA), Society of Professional Journalists and other professional groups.

Lester has received 15 first place national awards for journalism excellence and scores more at the national, regional, and state levels.

Emily Kolinski Morris

Chief Economist, Ford Motor Company

Emily Kolinski Morris joined Ford Motor Company in 1997 and during that time has conducted economic analysis in varying roles for all of Ford’s major global markets, before becoming Ford’s chief economist in 2014.  In this capacity, Emily manages the corporate economics group with major responsibility for the Company's global economic and automotive industryforecasts supporting business strategy, finance, and planning.

Priorto joining Ford, Emily spent four years as a fiscal analyst with the Michigan House of Representatives.  In this non-partisan position, she provided council to House members on program funding and performance, testified regularly before the House Appropriations committee, and interacted with stakeholders at all levels of state government.

Emily holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan, and a B.A. in Economics and International Studies from the University of Michigan-Dearborn.  She is active in various professional organizations, currently serving on the board of the Council for Economic Education.  She previously served a three-year term as an elected board member of the National Association for Business Economics, and is also a past president of the Detroit chapter of that organization.

Daniil Manaenkov

US Forecasting Specialist, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics

Daniil Manaenkov is a US Forecasting Specialist in the RSQE unit. His responsibilities at RSQE include participation in the U.S. modeling effort and the preparation of national economic forecasts. In the past he has worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where he was involved in forecasting the U.S. economy.